Grocery shrinkage includes food that disappears from the available supply through spoilage, damage, and other loss, while broader retail shrink can also include theft and inventory errors. The figures below show the scale of U.S. food loss, the wide differences between commodities, and why retail-shrink statistics should not be treated as a direct measure of grocery spoilage.
Contents
- How much food is lost in grocery retail
- Fresh-fruit shrink rates by commodity
- Fresh-vegetable shrink rates by commodity
- Meat, poultry, and seafood shrink rates
- How revised estimates change food availability
- Retail shrink, theft, and recent loss trends
How much food is lost in grocery retail
The USDA Economic Research Service estimated that 133 billion pounds of the 430-billion-pound U.S. food supply available at retail and consumer levels went uneaten in 2010. That was 31% of the supply. The same estimate equaled about 1.2 pounds per person per day and more than $1.40 per person per day at average retail prices. These figures combine retail and consumer levels, so they describe the food system broadly rather than supermarket inventory alone. (USDA ERS, Food Loss, 2010.)
USDA ERS also estimated supermarket loss for specific fresh-food groups in 2016. The estimate was 6.2 billion pounds for 31 fresh vegetables and 6.7 billion pounds for 24 fresh fruits. Both totals were measured before removing nonedible parts: peels, stalks, and other inedible vegetable material remained in the vegetable estimate, while pits and peels remained in the fruit estimate. (USDA ERS, Food Loss, 2016.)
EPA used a different scope and measurement in its 2019 Wasted Food Report. It estimated 13.0 million tons of wasted food from the U.S. food-retail sector, including 9.0 million tons from supermarkets and supercenters and 4.0 million tons from food wholesale. EPA estimated that 41.1% of retail wasted food was donated. These numbers measure wasted food, which is broader than inventory shrink, and the 13.0-million-ton total is not grocery-only. (EPA, 2019 Wasted Food Report, 2019.)
For meal planning, the practical message is that loss is not evenly distributed. A store-level or national total can conceal much higher rates for particular fresh products, especially items with short selling windows or sensitive handling requirements.
Fresh-fruit shrink rates by commodity
USDA ERS reported an average supermarket shrink rate of 12.6% for fresh fruit in 2011–12. The commodity estimates ranged from 4.1% for bananas to 43.1% for papayas.
| Fresh fruit | Average supermarket shrink, 2011–12 |
|---|---|
| Bananas | 4.1% |
| Lemons | 5.1% |
| Grapes | 8.7% |
| Cherries | 10.3% |
| Strawberries | 14.2% |
| Peaches | 15.6% |
| Avocados | 19.0% |
| Apples | 19.2% |
| Pineapples | 32.2% |
| Papayas | 43.1% |
Bananas had the lowest average shrink rate among the measured fresh fruits at 4.1%. Lemons were at 5.1%, grapes at 8.7%, and cherries at 10.3%. Strawberries reached 14.2%, while peaches reached 15.6%. Apples and avocados were close to one another at 19.2% and 19.0%, respectively. Pineapples were at 32.2%, and papayas had the highest measured rate at 43.1%. (USDA ERS, Updated Supermarket Shrink Estimates, 2011–12.)
These are U.S. retail-level estimates based on a convenience sample of supermarket retailers and shipment-versus-point-of-sale data. They are not current 2026 measurements and are not nationally representative. The differences are still useful for comparing measured commodities within that study: a papaya rate of 43.1% is more than ten times the banana rate of 4.1%, but the comparison should not be read as a current forecast for every store.
Fresh-vegetable shrink rates by commodity
Average supermarket shrink for fresh vegetables was 11.6% in 2011–12, slightly below the 12.6% fruit average reported for the same period. The vegetable range was even wider, from 2.2% for sweet corn to 62.9% for turnip greens.
The lower measured rates included sweet corn at 2.2%, sweet potatoes at 4.4%, garlic at 5.1%, Brussels sprouts at 5.8%, onions at 6.5%, broccoli at 6.7%, carrots at 7.2%, and cabbage at 7.4%. Potatoes were at 8.3%, while tomatoes reached 14.5%. Okra was measured at 40.2%, and turnip greens had the highest rate among the fresh vegetables measured, at 62.9%. (USDA ERS, Updated Supermarket Shrink Estimates, 2011–12.)
| Fresh vegetable | Average supermarket shrink, 2011–12 |
|---|---|
| Sweet corn | 2.2% |
| Sweet potatoes | 4.4% |
| Garlic | 5.1% |
| Brussels sprouts | 5.8% |
| Onions | 6.5% |
| Broccoli | 6.7% |
| Carrots | 7.2% |
| Cabbage | 7.4% |
| Potatoes | 8.3% |
| Tomatoes | 14.5% |
| Okra | 40.2% |
| Turnip greens | 62.9% |
The vegetable figures are not a universal spoilage schedule. They are retail-level estimates from the USDA ERS study, and the study’s convenience sample limits national representativeness. They also show why a single “fresh produce shrink” percentage can be misleading: the measured rate for turnip greens was 60.7 percentage points higher than the rate for sweet corn.
Meat, poultry, and seafood shrink rates
The combined average supermarket shrink rate for fresh meat, poultry, and seafood was 12.7% in 2011–12. Fresh meat and poultry together were measured at 11.0%, while fish and shellfish together were measured at 22.6%.
Among the measured meat and poultry categories, turkey had the lowest average rate at 5.9%. Pork was 8.9%, beef was 11.2%, and chicken was 12.6%. Lamb and goat reached 18.7%, and veal reached 23.3%. Shellfish had the highest rate among the measured meat, poultry, and seafood categories, at 24.1%. (USDA ERS, Updated Supermarket Shrink Estimates, 2011–12.)
| Category | Average supermarket shrink, 2011–12 |
|---|---|
| Turkey | 5.9% |
| Pork | 8.9% |
| Beef | 11.2% |
| Chicken | 12.6% |
| Lamb and goat | 18.7% |
| Veal | 23.3% |
| Shellfish | 24.1% |
The seafood comparison is especially important when interpreting the combined category. A 22.6% fish-and-shellfish average does not mean every seafood product had that rate; the category includes measured products with different results, and shellfish alone was 24.1%.
How revised estimates change food availability
The USDA ERS study reported fresh-fruit shrink at 13.3% in 2011 and 12.3% in 2012. Commodity movement was uneven. Papaya shrink fell 24.5 percentage points between 2011 and 2012, yet its 2011–12 average remained 43.1%. Pineapple shrink rose 5.3 percentage points between the two years, reaching a 32.2% average. Peach shrink rose 5.0 percentage points, reaching a 15.6% average. (USDA ERS, Updated Supermarket Shrink Estimates, 2011–12.)
Updating the vegetable assumptions changed the estimated amount available at retail. Replacing older vegetable shrink assumptions with the 2011–12 estimates reduced estimated fresh-vegetable retail-level loss by 1.7 pounds per capita in 2012. Under the revised assumptions, fresh-vegetable availability at the retail level was 156.8 pounds per capita in 2012, including 31.3 pounds per capita for potatoes. Fresh-protein availability at the retail level was 157.3 pounds per capita in 2012. (USDA ERS, Updated Supermarket Shrink Estimates, 2012.)
These are revised estimates for a historical measurement year. They demonstrate how a change in shrink assumptions changes reported availability; they do not establish a current national inventory forecast.
Retail shrink, theft, and recent loss trends
NRF figures provide a more recent view of broad retail shrink, but they cover all retail rather than grocery alone. Participating retailers reported an average inventory shrink rate of 1.6% in fiscal 2022, up from 1.4% in fiscal 2021. NRF estimated that the 1.6% rate represented $112.1 billion in U.S. retail losses in 2022. NRF also reported a 1.44% average shrink rate and $94.5 billion in losses for 2021, compared with $90.8 billion in losses in 2020. (NRF, National Retail Security Survey 2023; NRF, 2022 shrink report, 2020–2022.)
NRF reported that internal and external theft accounted for 65% of retailers’ shrink in 2022. In the same reporting, 67% of survey respondents said they saw more organized-retail-crime-related violence and aggression than in the prior year. NRF’s 2022 survey also reported a 26.5% average increase in organized-retail-crime incidents in 2021. (NRF, 2022 shrink report, 2021–2022.)
The later NRF report found that average shoplifting incidents per year were 93% higher in 2023 than in 2019 among surveyed retailers, while dollar loss due to shoplifting was 90% higher. It also reported that 28% of surveyed retailers closed a specific store location because of retail crime and 45% reduced operating hours. (NRF, The Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2024, 2019–2023 and 2022.)
These NRF statistics should not be added to USDA produce-shrink percentages. Retail shrink can include theft, administrative or operational errors, and other inventory losses, whereas the USDA commodity estimates describe retail-level fresh-food shrink based on shipment-versus-point-of-sale data. The two sources answer different questions: one describes broad inventory loss across retail, and the other describes measured food shrink by commodity.